Fund II (America 2030) Q3 2026 Update (Copy)
SpaceX has stopped taking rideshare bookings beyond 2028. For the hundreds of small satellites that ride on its Transporter and Bandwagon missions, the cheapest seat to orbit is about to disappear. Here is who can carry them next, split between the companies you can buy on Nasdaq and the ones you cannot.
The cheapest seat is closing
In July, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX had started turning away satellite operators who wanted dedicated Falcon 9 rides after 2028, and that it was no longer taking reservations for its rideshare program. Satellite integrators confirmed the freeze for Transporter and Bandwagon missions beyond late 2028. SpaceX has not issued an official statement.
The reason is capacity. Falcon 9 increasingly flies Starlink, and SpaceX has wound down production of some expendable Falcon hardware as it moves its future onto Starship. Elon Musk has said Falcon will be phased out once Starship flies reliably several times a week.
For small satellite operators this matters more than any headline about Starship. Rideshare priced a ride at roughly $350,000 for 50 kg to sun-synchronous orbit in 2026, about $7,000 per kilogram. No dedicated small rocket flying today comes close to that price.
Sources: Bloomberg, 24 Jul 2026; SatNews, 20 Jul 2026; New Space Economy, 27 Feb 2026; Musk on X via KeepTrack, Aug 2026.
The road to the cliff
Every serious alternative is either flying in small numbers or still on the ground. What matters is which of them flies, and flies often, before the last booked rideshare leaves the pad.
- Jun 2026SpaceX lists on Nasdaq at $135 a share, valued at $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion.
- Jul 2026Rideshare bookings beyond 2028 frozen, as reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by integrators.
- Sep 2026Stoke Space closes $1 billion, the first tranche of its Series E, before its rocket has flown.
- Dec 2026New Glenn return to flight after a May pad explosion.Target
- Late 2026Rocket Lab Neutron debut. Rocket Lab says the window is narrowing and it may slip into 2027.Target
- Early 2027Stoke Nova Pathfinder, the first fully reusable medium rocket attempt.Target
- 2027Astra Rocket 4 maiden flight, no earlier than Q1.Target
- H2 2027Phantom Space Daytona first flight.Target
- Late 2028Last booked SpaceX rideshare. After this, small satellites need another ride.
Sources: Reuters via BusinessDay, 11 Jun 2026; Payload, 8 Sep 2026; Motley Fool via Nasdaq, 14 Jul 2026; Spaceflight Now, 10 Aug 2026; Space Launch Now; Payload, 26 Feb 2026.
Price per kilogram to orbit, US rockets
Dedicated launch price divided by payload to low Earth orbit. The dashed line marks the SpaceX rideshare price. Electron and Alpha sell a whole rocket, so a customer gets its own orbit and date, which rideshare does not offer. Stoke, Relativity and Blue Origin have not published prices.
Sources: Rocket Lab; ExtremeTech, Apr 2025; CNBC, Oct 2022 and Mar 2023; Reuters, 14 Aug 2026; Payload, Oct 2024.
Bigger rockets, cheaper kilograms
Only Neutron, a reusable rocket about 40 times Electron's size, is aimed clearly below the rideshare line. Small rockets sell a dedicated ride, which costs more per kilogram. Kinetic launchers such as Longshot are not shown: they do not yet deliver to orbit.
Sources: as for the price chart above. Both axes log scale.
Who has actually flown
Orbital launch attempts to 14 Oct 2026. Electron's count excludes its suborbital HASTE flights. Neutron, Nova, Terran R and Rocket 4 have not flown yet. Only one company outside SpaceX has a long orbital record, and it is public.
Sources: Wikipedia Electron launch list; Space.com, Mar 2026; Spectrum News, 20 Apr 2026; AeroMorning, 7 Sep 2026; SmartCompany, 20 Jan 2026.
Two markets, two kinds of bet
Investors can reach launch in two ways. On the public side, three listed companies tie directly to this question, each priced every second. On the private side sit the companies that may matter most after 2028, most of which have not yet reached orbit. They carry more risk, and the pricing of their next rounds will be set by their first flights.
Public
Market value, 14 Oct 2026SpaceX
Nasdaq: SPCXThe incumbent, and the company leaving the small-satellite market. Now public, so its rideshare decision answers to shareholders who want Starlink and Starship capacity.
- At IPO
- $1.77T, $135 a share, 12 Jun 2026
- Rideshare
- No bookings beyond late 2028
Rocket Lab
Nasdaq: RKLBThe only US company flying a small rocket at volume. Electron is the default dedicated ride for small satellites. Neutron, a reusable medium rocket, is the real answer to rideshare if it flies on time.
- Market value
- $35.5B
- Electron
- 97 missions incl. suborbital HASTE Flying
- Neutron
- 13 t reusable, debut late 2026 or 2027 In development
- Backlog
- $2.36B, end of Q2 2026
Firefly Aerospace
Nasdaq: FLYAlpha carries about a tonne, more than three times Electron. It returned to flight in March 2026 after a 2025 failure, and an upgraded Block II is due next.
- Market value
- $2.86B
- Alpha
- 7 flights, 3 full successes Flying
- Next
- Block II debut, Q4 2026 target
Private
Latest reported fundingBlue Origin
New GlennA heavy rocket that could carry large rideshare stacks. Three flights so far; a ground-test explosion in May damaged its only pad.
- Payload
- 45 t to LEO
- Status
- Return to flight Dec 2026 target Grounded
- Funding
- Reportedly raising $10B at $130B
Stoke Space
NovaBuilding the first fully reusable medium rocket, with both stages coming back. Investors have committed $2.3 billion before its first flight.
- Payload
- 3 t reusable (Pathfinder)
- Status
- First flight early 2027 In development
- Funding
- $1B Series E, Sep 2026, reported $9B to $10B
Relativity Space
Terran RA reusable medium-heavy rocket, now backed by Eric Schmidt after an investment of about $800 million in late 2025.
- Payload
- 23.5 t, booster reused
- Status
- Late 2026 target In development
- Funding
- Valuation not disclosed
Astra
Rocket 4A comeback attempt aimed squarely at small satellites, priced near rideshare per kilogram if it delivers. Its first rocket succeeded twice in six tries.
- Payload
- About 600 kg
- Status
- Maiden flight 2027 In development
- Funding
- Seeking $250M at $1B
Longshot
Kinetic launchA ground-based accelerator that fires payloads to hypersonic speed without a rocket. It sells hypersonic testing first and aims at orbit later.
- Status
- Hypersonic testing Suborbital
- Funding
- $20M raised, incl. $5M from South Park Commons, Jun 2026
Sources: Stock Analysis, 14 Oct 2026; Reuters via BusinessDay, 11 Jun 2026; Rocket Lab SEC 8-K, 10 Aug 2026 and release, Sep 2026; Spaceflight Now, Aug 2026; Space.com, Mar 2026; Motley Fool via Nasdaq, 14 Jul 2026; Payload, 8 Sep 2026; Bloomberg, 17 Dec 2025 and 13 Aug 2026; Reuters, 14 Aug 2026; Longshot release, 23 Jun 2026.
What the market pays for launch
Log scale. Public values are market capitalisation on 14 Oct 2026, SpaceX at its June IPO. Private values are reported by the press, not confirmed by the companies; Astra's is the price it is seeking. Relativity and Longshot have not disclosed a valuation.
Sources: Stock Analysis, 14 Oct 2026; Reuters via BusinessDay, 11 Jun 2026; Pulse 2.0, 5 Jun 2026; Bloomberg, 13 Aug 2026; Reuters, 14 Aug 2026.
The middlemen are buying whole rockets. Exolaunch, which has flown on every SpaceX rideshare, bought two dedicated Falcon 9 missions and is being acquired by private equity firm EQT. Portal Space Systems bought an entire Falcon 9 for 2028 and is reselling half of it. Impulse Space raised $500 million at $4.26 billion to move satellites to their final orbit after launch. Whoever owns capacity now sets the price.
Sources: Satellite Today, 18 Jun 2026; Payload, Aug and Sep 2026; Reuters, 2 Jun 2026.
Outside the US. Germany's Isar Aerospace reached orbit on 5 September 2026, the first commercial launch to orbit from continental Europe. Rocket Factory Augsburg and Spain's PLD Space hold European Space Agency contracts, and Australia's Gilmour Space raised a A$217 million Series E. These are real options for European and Asian operators, but they are not US assets.
Sources: AeroMorning, 7 Sep 2026; Satellite Today, Aug 2026; Forbes Australia, Jan 2026.
What we think
Scarcity moves pricing power to whoever flies. Until 2028, operators with a manifest slot hold the advantage. That favors Rocket Lab, Firefly and the integrators that bought whole rockets.
The real prize is a reusable medium rocket that flies before late 2028. Neutron, Nova, Terran R and New Glenn are racing for it. Public markets offer one of them through Rocket Lab. The other three are private.
First flights will reprice the private names. A successful Nova or Terran R debut in 2027 likely lifts the next round. A failure does the opposite. Entry before the flight is a bet on execution.
The main risks are clear. SpaceX could reopen rideshare on Starship, first flights slip, and every price quoted for an unflown rocket is a target, not a contract.
We are already in orbit, and adding launch
America 2030 is invested in Loft Orbital, which flies customer payloads on its own satellite fleet and buys rides to orbit for them. In May 2026, six EarthDaily satellites managed by Loft went up together on a SpaceX rideshare launch, Loft's largest single deployment. We see the launch squeeze from the customer's side.
We are now adding launch exposure, and we are evaluating companies such as:
- Loft Orbital · held
- Stoke Space
- Longshot
- Other launch technologies
America 2030 is a five-year hard tech fund investing across Defense, Energy, AI Infrastructure, Robotics, Critical Minerals and Space, investing in private companies from Series A to pre-IPO, directly on the cap table.
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