By Edoardo Zarghetta · IPO CLUB Research · Updated
FUND ONE INSIGHTS / HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
Past performance, recent acquisitions, crypto IPO lessons and the regulatory and economic conditions that could shape 2027.
Executive summary. Ripple and Kraken offer exposure to operating businesses, not substitutes for XRP and Bitcoin. Our assessment supports a conditional hold into 2027 for existing, appropriately sized positions whose owners can tolerate a longer wait for liquidity. It does not establish a clear buy at the member asking prices of $80 and $30. Kraken has stronger disclosed operating evidence; both face integration, valuation and exit risks. Investors needing cash in 2027 or reducing concentration have a stronger reason to sell or trim than to rely on an IPO.
Ripple shares vs XRP
Kraken shares vs Bitcoin
Figure 1. Q4 2021 = 100. Quarterly observations through Q3 2026. Private shares use IPO CLUB Valuation at Market; crypto prices use Digrin monthly histories. XRP changes are approximate. These are not fund returns. [1][2][3]
Should investors buy the token or own a company building the infrastructure around it? Five years of IPO CLUB valuation data for Ripple and Kraken show that the answer depends on the business, the entry price and the period measured. Both companies are Fund One investments.
| Change to Q3 2026 | Ripple shares | XRP | Kraken shares | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| From Q4 2021 | +220.7% | +79.5% | -49.2% | +80.4% |
| From Q4 2023 | +287.5% | +140.3% | +288.2% | +97.7% |
| From Q3 2025 | -62.8% | -47.7% | -45.0% | -26.7% |
Ripple’s per-share valuation rose from $29 to $93 over the full period; Kraken’s fell from $65 to $33. Yet both private-share series gained about 288% from Q4 2023. Over the latest year, both fell sharply. Selecting only the most favorable starting date would obscure the investment experience.
Private quotes can be stale or unavailable precisely when liquid markets are moving fastest. The charts measure changes in recorded valuations and prices, excluding distributions, fees, carry, taxes and transaction costs. They cannot establish that private shares are less volatile, or that either asset type is always the better investment. See methodology at the end.
COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS / RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
What has changed at Ripple and Kraken?
Ripple equity and XRP represent different exposures. XRP does not confer ownership of Ripple or a claim on its profits. Shareholders own an interest in a business expanding across payments, custody, treasury software and prime brokerage. Ripple’s XRP holdings create a connection, but growth in its services does not imply a proportional increase in token demand. [4]
| Company / transaction | Verified status | Investment relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Ripple Treasury / Solvexia | Acquired January 2026. [5] | Adds reconciliation, financial automation and regulatory reporting to treasury software. |
| Ripple / BC Payments Australia | Proposed March 2026; announcement subject to completion. [6] | Would add an Australian financial-services license and support regional payments expansion. |
| Payward / Saldo Bank | Agreement October 14, 2026; expected 2027 close, subject to approvals. [7] | Would expand European deposit, lending and payment capabilities. |
| Payward / Magic Labs wallet business | Agreement July 27, 2026; do not treat announcement as completion. [8] | Embedded wallets extend the business-to-business infrastructure offering. |
| Payward / Reap and Bitnomial | Reap closed July 1; Bitnomial closed May 1, 2026. [9] | Payments and card issuing, plus regulated U.S. derivatives infrastructure. |
Ripple also announced a DriveWealth partnership on October 14, 2026. It is a partnership, not an acquisition. For both companies, the investment test is whether these additions generate profitable customer relationships after integration, compliance and capital costs. [10]
How much of Kraken’s revenue comes from Bitcoin?
A reliable coin-by-coin percentage is not publicly disclosed in the financial materials reviewed. We cannot quantify Bitcoin, Ethereum, other altcoins or memecoins as shares of total revenue. A coin’s share of exchange trading volume would not answer the question: fee rates, customer tiers, product types and non-trading income differ.
What Payward does disclose is 60% asset-based and other revenue in Q2 2026, up from 55% a year earlier. The remaining 40% is the arithmetic complement, not a Bitcoin or memecoin category. Group adjusted revenue was $508 million, up 17% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA was $23 million. These non-GAAP measures are not net income, and the group figures extend beyond Kraken spot trading. [9]
Explore IPO CLUB’s Ripple company page and Kraken company page for further research.
PUBLIC-MARKET EVIDENCE / IPO PERFORMANCE
Circle today, and what other crypto IPOs tell us
Circle (NYSE: CRCL) closed at $85.91 on Friday, October 23, 2026, the latest regular trading session before this Sunday update. That is 177.1% above its $31 IPO price, but only 3.2% above the $83.23 first-day close. The entry price changes the conclusion. [11][12][14][15]
Figure 2. Circle rebased to its first trading-day close = 100. Monthly observations plus the latest close; connecting lines are not a daily path. The $31 offering price is shown separately. Different start date from Figure 1 because Circle listed in 2025. [13][11]
| Company / debut | IPO price | Day-one close | Oct 23 close | From IPO | From day one |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circle / Jun 5, 2025 | $31.00 | $83.23 | $85.91 | +177.1% | +3.2% |
| Bullish / Aug 13, 2025 | $37.00 | $68.00 | $28.21 | -23.8% | -58.5% |
| Gemini / Sep 12, 2025 | $28.00 | $32.00 | $3.06 | -89.1% | -90.4% |
Sources for Bullish: [16][17][18]. Gemini: [19][20][21]. USD prices; price changes only, excluding distributions and costs. Different listing dates mean different holding periods. These selected peers are not a complete IPO cohort.
Kraken’s closest business comparisons here are Bullish and Gemini, although customer mix, scale and revenue models differ. Circle is a partial comparison for Ripple’s stablecoin infrastructure, not for the whole company. Circle’s reserve-income model and Ripple’s XRP holdings, software and prime brokerage create different earnings sensitivities.
The evidence supports a wide range of outcomes, not a predictable IPO uplift. Public investors eventually assess growth, margins, balance-sheet risk and valuation. Lockups may prevent private holders selling during an early rally. An IPO can improve liquidity without preserving the price at which trading begins.
REGULATION / U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL WATCHLIST
2027 regulation: passage is only one variable
The U.S. already has a payment-stablecoin framework under the GENIUS Act. Broader market-structure legislation remains a separate question after the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate in September 2026. [22][23]
If workable legislation advances: clearer operating rules could support institutional adoption and IPO demand. Kraken could gain activity; Ripple could gain infrastructure clients. Compliance costs, implementation delays and stronger competition could offset benefits. If legislation stalls: existing law and agency action continue, but uncertainty could delay commitments and sustain private-market liquidity discounts. Neither outcome dictates token or share prices.
Outside the U.S., watch both major adoption markets and financial hubs. Chainalysis ranks Brazil, Nigeria, Japan, South Korea and India among its top six adoption markets. The table identifies potential policy surprises, not forecasts of legislation or company-specific market access. [24]
| Market / why it matters | Policy surprise to monitor and potential effect |
|---|---|
| EU / large regulated market | MiCA transition has ended. Enforcement and stablecoin eligibility could concentrate activity among licensed firms or restrict products. Relevant to Kraken’s European expansion. [25] |
| UK / financial hub | 2027 authorization decisions and implementation could open institutional business or disrupt firms that fail to qualify. [26] |
| Brazil / adoption leader | Stablecoin and cross-border transfers intersect with FX rules. Tighter requirements could reduce the cost advantage of crypto payments; clear routes could support compliant providers. [27] |
| Japan / major adoption market | Exchange registration and investor-protection requirements matter. Watch changes in permitted products and access; expansion could add demand, restrictions could constrain it. [28] |
| South Korea / trading and capital markets | Tokenized-securities rollout begins in February 2027; later phases depend partly on stablecoin legislation. Execution could create custody and settlement demand, or delays could defer it. [29] |
| India and Nigeria / large user bases | AML, licensing and enforcement are key access constraints. Tightening may redirect activity; clearer permissions may support compliant services. Do not equate user adoption with foreign-provider access. [30][31] |
| Hong Kong and Singapore / institutional hubs | Hong Kong has begun stablecoin licensing; Singapore consulted on implementing legislation in September. Approved issuers, reserve rules and distribution limits could reshape competition. [32][33] |
| UAE / regional financial hub | Dubai uses activity-specific VARA permissions. Broader approvals could support expansion; stricter product or conduct conditions could limit it. Other UAE jurisdictions have separate regimes. [34] |
MACROECONOMICS / RATES, GROWTH AND GEOPOLITICS
Do lower U.S. rates mean higher crypto prices?
Crypto prices: Q1 2024 = 100. Fed target upper limit: percent, shown separately.
Figure 3. Crypto series rebased to Q1 2024 = 100; quarterly observations through Q3 2026. Fed series is the upper bound of its target range, in percent. CoinDesk 20 is a capped, broad crypto price index; it excludes stablecoins and memecoins and is not an index of every token. [2][3][35][36]
The chart does not support a mechanical “rate cuts equal crypto gains” rule. Crypto weakened during parts of the easing cycle and rebounded in Q3 2026, when the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Expectations, positioning, adoption and sector-specific shocks also influence prices. Eleven quarterly observations cannot establish causation. [37]
| 2027 macro scenario | Potential transmission to tokens and private shares |
|---|---|
| Soft landing and lower rates | Better liquidity and risk appetite could support crypto demand and equity multiples. Lower reserve yields could reduce stablecoin income unless balances or services grow sufficiently. |
| Recession, even with cuts | Forced selling and weaker customer activity could dominate initially. Exchange volatility may briefly lift trading, while fundraising and IPO windows weaken. |
| Persistent inflation / high rates | Higher required returns can compress growth-company valuations and delay exits. Higher reserve yields can benefit some businesses without offsetting wider demand pressure. |
| War escalation / de-escalation | Escalation can raise energy costs and risk aversion; durable de-escalation can ease those pressures. Neither Bitcoin nor XRP should be assumed to provide reliable wartime protection. |
For private markets, the practical channels are financing costs, dilution, secondary-market bids and the timing of exits. A healthier public market can improve optionality, but a fund can distribute only what it is able to realize or transfer.
FUTURE PERFORMANCE / THE 2027 INVESTMENT CASE
What would support a better outcome in 2027?
IPO preparation and performance are separate. Kraken confidentially submitted a draft registration statement in November 2025. Ripple’s president ruled out a 2026 listing in January. Neither establishes a confirmed 2027 IPO in the materials reviewed. [38][39]
Positive versus negative: our evidence scorecard
The score below is an editorial judgment, not a valuation model: +1 favorable, -1 adverse, 0 mixed or unresolved. Seven criteria receive equal weight. Unresolved items are not evidence of safety, and a positive total would not establish that a security is cheap. Business and financial evidence is discussed above; the liquidity and pricing observations use the supplied terms.
| Criterion | Ripple at $80 | Kraken at $30 |
|---|---|---|
| Business breadth / customer opportunity | +1: payments, custody, treasury software and prime brokerage. | +1: trading, payments, banking infrastructure and services. |
| Disclosed operating momentum | 0: insufficient comparable financial disclosure in the reviewed material. | +1: Q2 adjusted revenue rose 17%; adjusted EBITDA was positive. |
| Acquisition execution | -1: integrating several businesses adds cost and execution risk. | -1: integration and pending approvals create execution risk. |
| Net regulatory and macro effect | 0: clearer rules could help; restrictions, competition and high rates can offset this. | 0: similar two-sided exposure; licensing alone does not ensure attractive economics. |
| Exit and liquidity | -1: no confirmed 2027 IPO; resale and timing remain uncertain. | -1: IPO preparation is not a guaranteed listing or liquid exit. |
| Balance sheet / shareholder economics | 0: current consolidated cash flow, debt and dilution terms are insufficiently established here. | 0: adjusted EBITDA does not settle free cash flow, debt, acquisition funding or dilution. |
| Entry-price support | 0: 14.0% below the $93 Q3 mark; not independently established fair value. | 0: 9.1% below the $33 Q3 mark; not independently established fair value. |
| Unweighted net score | -1: 1 favorable, 2 adverse, 4 unresolved. | 0: 2 favorable, 2 adverse, 3 unresolved. |
Our conclusion: retain a modest existing allocation only if the thesis still holds and liquidity is not needed in 2027; do not add solely because the asking price is below the quarterly mark. Kraken has the stronger disclosed operating case, but neither score demonstrates a margin of safety. For fresh capital, the present evidence favors waiting for financial and ownership diligence over an unconditional buy.
Sell or trim when liquidity needs or concentration justify it. A holder should assess the opportunity cost of keeping capital invested at today’s realizable price, not anchor to the original purchase price or a previous peak. Holding and buying require the same underlying economic conviction; position size, taxes and transaction constraints can make the practical decisions differ.
Before an additional purchase, obtain current financial statements, cash and debt, acquisition funding commitments, the fully diluted share count and the exact rights being transferred. A stronger conclusion would require those inputs and a defensible valuation range. We cannot substantiate a positive 2027 return or a fair-value target from the available evidence.
2027 SCENARIO DASHBOARD / WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
Watch the signals, then reassess the shares
Arrows describe the potential effect on the investment case, not the direction of the underlying variable. For example, falling rates can be favorable. These are conditional scenarios for 2027, not forecasts or a live rating of today’s conditions.
| What to watch | ↑ FAVORABLE | → MIXED / STABLE | ↓ ADVERSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. rates and growth | Inflation eases; gradual cuts with resilient growth. Financing and risk appetite may improve. | Rates steady; growth holds. Company execution matters more. | Inflation forces higher rates, or emergency cuts accompany recession. Valuation and demand pressure. |
| War and geopolitical risk | Durable de-escalation lowers energy and trade disruption. Risk appetite may improve. | Contained conflict; no major new disruption. Elevated uncertainty persists. | Escalation, energy shock or payment disruption. Risk aversion and operational costs rise. |
| Crypto regulation | Workable rules, licenses and implementation broaden legal market access. | Delayed legislation or uneven implementation. Existing rules still apply. | Restrictive rules, lost access or adverse enforcement. Costs rise and growth may slow. |
| Bitcoin and broader crypto | Sustained gains with broad participation and healthy activity. Exchange demand may strengthen. | Range-bound prices. Trading and revenue can rise or fall independently. | Prolonged decline with weaker participation. Activity, assets and risk appetite may deteriorate. |
| Business performance | Revenue quality, cash generation and acquisition integration improve. | Mixed results; limited visibility into cash flow or dilution. | Cash burn, costly integration, leverage or dilution undermines shareholder value. |
| IPO and exit conditions | Credible progress, viable pricing and an achievable liquidity route. | Timing unclear; continued private ownership. | IPO delay, weak peer valuations or tighter resale constraints. |
Ripple: watch payments, custody and institutional adoption, actual revenue and the economics of acquisitions. Higher XRP prices do not translate one-for-one into equity value. Kraken: watch trading activity, customer assets, revenue mix and cash generation. Higher Bitcoin prices alone do not establish higher profits.
How to use the dashboard at $80 / $30
| Signal pattern | Decision to consider |
|---|---|
| ↑ FAVORABLE | Consider holding or adding only if company fundamentals improve and the exact share rights, current financials and purchase valuation support the price. Green macro signals alone are insufficient. |
| → MIXED / STABLE | Keep exposure modest if the thesis remains sound and liquidity is not needed. Wait for stronger evidence before committing fresh capital. |
| ↓ ADVERSE | Reassess and consider trimming if the business thesis weakens, losses exceed risk capacity or liquidity is needed. An executable sale is not guaranteed. |
Do not simply count the arrows. Rates, conflict and crypto prices overlap. A severe company, custody, solvency or ownership-rights problem can outweigh several favorable macro signals. Reassess quarterly and after material events; no outcome here establishes a 2027 return or target price.
PORTFOLIO DECISIONS
One company, or one managed portfolio?
For investors who prefer to delegate selection, monitoring and exits, America 2030 provides exposure to 12 portfolio companies through one managed fund investment, across defense, space, AI infrastructure, energy, robotics and critical minerals. The published minimum is $50,000, subject to investor eligibility and offering terms. [40]
America 2030 is separate from Fund One’s Ripple and Kraken holdings; these charts are not its performance. Its portfolio includes holdings that have become public. Explore America 2030 → Review the holdings, fees, liquidity terms and risks. Diversification does not eliminate loss or liquidity risk.
METHODOLOGY / HOW TO READ THE EVIDENCE
Valuation at Market by IPO CLUB
IPO CLUB’s proprietary methodology uses price data from the five most active secondary-market brokers during each quarter. Where available, the Manager records bids for transaction sizes comparable to the Fund’s holdings. The asset valuation uses the highest recorded bid or, if no bid is available, the lowest recorded offer for direct shares of a similar class. The Manager may make documented adjustments using relevant filings and company disclosures. [1]
The supplied figures are USD per share. They are not whole-company valuations or guaranteed executable prices. Comparability depends on share class, corporate actions and the rights being transferred. Private quotes recorded during a quarter differ from liquid-market quarter-end observations. Connecting lines guide the eye; they do not reconstruct transactions or intraperiod volatility.
The asset comparisons exclude distributions, fees, carried interest, taxes and execution costs. Fund NAV separately adds income and deducts fund expenses under the valuation policy. Neither the individual-company charts nor the public-stock comparisons represent Fund One or America 2030 investor returns.
Chart and comparison conventions
Figure 1: each series equals 100 at Q4 2021. Period change is ending value divided by starting value, less one. XRP source prices are rounded to cents, so its changes are approximate.
Figure 2: Circle equals 100 at its June 5, 2025 first-day close. Monthly prices and October 23, 2026’s regular-session close are plotted. Offering-price and first-close returns are shown separately in the IPO table. After-hours prices are excluded.
Figure 3: Bitcoin, XRP and CoinDesk 20 equal 100 at Q1 2024, the March quarter-end observation. For CoinDesk 20, April-December 2024 monthly returns come from its September 2025 factsheet; January 2025-September 2026 returns come from its September 2026 factsheet. These are compounded and sampled at quarter ends. Rounded inputs may differ from independently reported levels. The Fed upper limit stays in percentage units, in a separate panel. The comparison is descriptive, not a causal estimate.
Peer selection: Circle, Bullish and Gemini were selected for stablecoin or exchange relevance. They have different business models and listing dates. The sample excludes miners, treasury vehicles, SPAC transactions and older direct listings; it should not be read as a representative average of all crypto listings.
Disclosure
IPO CLUB has an economic interest in investments discussed and is facilitating member liquidity. This is an informational marketing communication, not individualized investment advice. Any investment is subject to eligibility and definitive transaction or offering documents. Private securities and funds can be illiquid and lose all invested capital. IPO dates, exits and future returns are uncertain. Scenario analysis expresses possible mechanisms, not promises.
Sources
Research cutoff: 25 October 2026. Latest stock-price comparison: regular-session closes on 23 October 2026. Company statements are attributed to their issuers. Potential effects in the regulation and scenario tables are editorial analysis. Source links follow for review.
Sources and data references
- IPO CLUB: Manager-supplied quarterly USD per-share Valuation at Market series, Q4 2021 to Q3 2026, and methodology.
- Digrin: Bitcoin monthly USD history, sampled at quarter ends.
- Digrin: XRP monthly USD history, sampled at quarter ends; values rounded to cents.
- Ripple FAQs: company equity, XRP and products.
- Ripple Treasury: acquisition of Solvexia, 6 January 2026.
- Ripple: proposed BC Payments Australia acquisition, 11 March 2026.
- Payward: agreement to acquire Saldo Bank, 14 October 2026; expected close in 2027, subject to approvals.
- Payward: agreement to acquire Magic Labs wallet infrastructure business, 27 July 2026.
- Payward: Q2 2026 Financial Highlights, 14 August 2026; issuer-defined non-GAAP financials, revenue mix and acquisition status.
- Ripple and DriveWealth: institutional digital-asset infrastructure partnership, 14 October 2026.
- Stock Analysis: CRCL regular-session close on 23 October 2026, $85.91; cross-checked with Circle investor relations.
- Circle investor relations: historical stock quote.
- Digrin: CRCL monthly price history, June 2025 to September 2026.
- Circle: Q2 2025 results; IPO price $31.
- Wall Street Journal: Circle debut, 5 June 2025; first-day close $83.23.
- Bullish: IPO pricing, $37; first trading day 13 August 2025.
- Financial Times: Bullish debut, first-day close $68, 13 August 2025.
- Stock Analysis: BLSH close $28.21 on 23 October 2026.
- Gemini: IPO closing announcement; $28 offer, trading began 12 September 2025.
- Investopedia: Gemini debut, first-day close $32, 12 September 2025.
- Stock Analysis: GEMI close $3.06 on 23 October 2026; corroborated by MarketBeat.
- U.S. Public Law 119-27: GENIUS Act, enacted 18 July 2025.
- Orrick: CLARITY Act failed to advance in September 2026 Senate procedural vote; analysis dated 2 October 2026.
- Chainalysis: 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index; grassroots adoption is not the same as institutional market size.
- ESMA: MiCA transitional periods end 1 July 2026, statement dated 17 April 2026.
- FCA: new cryptoasset regime expected 25 October 2027; application window ends 28 February 2027.
- Reuters: Brazilian central bank virtual-asset and foreign-exchange rules, 10 November 2025.
- FSA Japan: registered crypto-asset exchange service providers and registration requirement.
- Korea FSC: tokenized-securities roadmap, 4 September 2026; first phase February 2027, later phases depend partly on stablecoin legislation.
- FIU India: AML/CFT guidelines for virtual digital asset providers, updated 8 January 2026.
- Nigeria SEC: rules on digital-asset issuance, offering and custody.
- HKMA: first stablecoin issuer licenses, 10 April 2026.
- MAS: proposed legislative amendments for stablecoin regulation, 1 September 2026.
- Dubai VARA: broker-dealer services rulebook; geographic scope is Dubai, not all UAE jurisdictions.
- CoinDesk 20 factsheets, September 2025 and September 2026 editions: 2024 and 2025-2026 monthly returns, respectively; chained and sampled quarterly.
- Federal Reserve policy statements and implementation notes: quarter-end upper limits, March 2024 to September 2026.
- Federal Reserve: September 16, 2026 decision raised target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
- Kraken: confidential submission of draft IPO registration statement, 19 November 2025.
- Yahoo Finance: January 2026 reporting of Ripple president Monica Long saying no 2026 IPO plans.
- IPO CLUB: America 2030 holdings and terms, portfolio as of 30 September 2026.
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