By Edoardo Zarghetta · IPO CLUB Research · Updated
SECTOR RESEARCH / HARD-TECH CAPITAL MARKETS
Do SPACs still work for hard-tech companies in 2026? What 25 listings say about SPACs, IPOs and staying private.
Short answer: rarely. Of 17 hard-tech companies that went public through a SPAC between January 2025 and November 2026, 16 trade below the $10 reference price, with a median loss of 59%. Hard-tech IPOs fell too, by a median of 48%, but SPACs also delivered far less cash than they announced. For a company that can still raise a priced private round, staying private is the better path.
Figure 1. Return from the SPAC reference price ($10.00) or the IPO offer price to the close on 4 November 2026 (Firefly Aerospace 26 October 2026). Solid line: zero. Dashed line: group median. IPO CLUB calculations. [6][10]
THE SCOREBOARD / DE-SPAC RETURNS
Do SPACs still underperform in 2026?
Yes. We tracked every US-listed hard-tech de-SPAC that closed since January 2025, across defense, space, nuclear and fusion, quantum, robotics, critical minerals and advanced manufacturing. Only Horizon Quantum trades above $10. Hadron Energy is down 93% and Kodiak AI 89%.
We know this first-hand. IPO CLUB funds have invested in two of these companies: Kodiak, down 89% from $10, and newcleo, about 49% below $10 since its merger closed in September. We backed both for their technology, and we still rate it. The listing route is what hurt the share price. The wider data agrees: Professor Jay Ritter puts the average return of the 43 de-SPACs that closed in 2025, measured from $10, at -55.7%. [1]
How much cash does a SPAC actually deliver?
Much less than the headline. Before the merger vote, SPAC investors can take their money back, and most do: median redemptions stayed between 84% and 92% in every quarter of 2026. [1] newcleo announced up to about $420M and received about $247M. General Fusion announced up to about $335M and received about $150M. Forge Nano kept $8.4M of its trust. [2][3][4]
Figure 2. Announced maximum gross proceeds (trust plus PIPE) against gross cash at closing. Forge Nano: $8.4M left in trust plus the $123M PIPE as announced. Agility includes $100M of pre-closing equity. Percentages are IPO CLUB arithmetic. [2][3][4][5]
The costs do not shrink with the cash: the sponsor’s free shares, warrants and fees stay. The full report shows what that leaves in cash behind each $10 share.
THE DAY-ONE POP / AND THE IPO CONTROL GROUP
Why do de-SPAC stocks pop on day one, then fall?
Because the first-day price is set by very few shares. After heavy redemptions, insiders and private investors are locked up and only a thin float trades. Terrestrial Energy closed its first day at $19.10 and now trades at $2.87. Every company in our cohort that finished day one above $10 has since fallen below it. [6]
Did hard-tech IPOs do better?
Somewhat. Of 8 hard-tech IPOs from 2025 and 2026, six trade below their offer price, with a median of -48%. Karman is up 80%; X-Energy, Fervo and Firefly are down more than half. Listing at a peak valuation hands the reset to public investors. But an IPO still beats a SPAC on two counts: the company keeps the cash it raises, and there is no sponsor promote. [6]
THE ALTERNATIVE / STAYING PRIVATE
What should a hard-tech founder do instead?
Stay private longer, and list later on your own terms. In 2026 the largest hard-tech rounds were private: Valar Atomics raised a $1B Series B and Antares a $470M Series C, more than most SPACs delivered. [8][7] Tender offers now handle employee liquidity without a listing; Carta counted 71 worth $3.0B in the first half of 2026. [9] And defense primes increasingly invest in the suppliers they want to work with.
Staying private has trade-offs, but each one is temporary and reversible. A broken public share price is not.
FAQ / SPACS, IPOS AND STAYING PRIVATE
Frequently asked questions
What is a de-SPAC?
A de-SPAC is the merger that takes a private company public through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), a listed shell that holds investors' cash in trust. The private company becomes the listed company when the merger closes.
What is a SPAC redemption?
Before the merger vote, SPAC shareholders can return their shares for their share of the trust, usually about $10 each. In 2026 the median redemption rate has been between 84% and 92% per quarter.
How did hard-tech de-SPACs perform in 2025 and 2026?
Of 17 hard-tech de-SPACs that closed from January 2025 and have traded, 16 trade below $10. The median return to 4 November 2026 is -59%.
Did hard-tech IPOs do better than SPACs in 2026?
Yes, but they still lost money. The median return of 8 hard-tech IPOs from 2025 and 2026 is -48% from the offer price, and 6 of 8 trade below it.
What is the alternative to a SPAC for a late-stage startup?
A priced private round, a tender offer for employee liquidity, or a strategic investor, followed by a traditional IPO when revenue supports the valuation.
Are SPACs ever a good idea?
Sometimes, for a company that cannot raise privately, with a large committed PIPE and a small or performance-based sponsor promote.
THE FULL REPORT
Read the full report
The full IPO CLUB report, SPAC Off!, has what this article leaves out: the company-by-company data for all 25 listings, six exhibits, how much cash a $10 SPAC share really holds, when a SPAC can still work, and a decision checklist for founders. Read the full report → Available to IPO CLUB members. For investors who want diversified exposure to late-stage US hard tech, see America 2030.
Related: Ripple stock vs XRP and Kraken vs Bitcoin: what five years of private-share data show
Disclosure
This article is for information only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, or investment advice. Any offering is made only to verified accredited investors under Rule 506(c), by means of its offering documents. Funds managed by IPO CLUB’s manager hold or have held positions in Kodiak AI, newcleo and SpaceX; IPO CLUB, its principals and affiliates may hold securities of companies discussed. IPO CLUB is not a broker-dealer and gives no capital-raising or listing advice to companies. Views are opinions as of the data date. Returns are IPO CLUB calculations and unaudited. Private securities can be illiquid and lose all invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2026 IPO CLUB.
Sources
Data as of 4 November 2026. Company figures are attributed to their issuers. Source links follow for review.
Sources and data references
- Jay R. Ritter, SPAC IPOs, Tables 12 and 15c, University of Florida, 5 October 2026.
- newcleo: business combination completed, about $247 million raised, September 2026.
- BetaKit: General Fusion public market debut after a redemption-heavy SPAC deal, July 2026.
- Forge Nano: closing Form 8-K, October 2026.
- Agility Robotics and Churchill Capital Corp XI: business combination completed, 4 November 2026.
- Yahoo Finance: daily closing prices, 4 November 2026 (Firefly Aerospace 26 October 2026).
- Antares: $470M Series C, Business Wire, 27 July 2026.
- Latham & Watkins: Sequoia Capital on Valar Atomics' Series B, August 2026.
- Carta: tender offer volume, first half of 2026.
- IPO CLUB: SPAC Off! sector report, November 2026, with the full company-by-company data.
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